Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 410 game sample- PTS
- 52.5
- SOG
- 170.6
- G
- 9.0
- A
- 43.5
- PPP
- 24.4
- HIT
- 165.8
- BLK
- 183.7
- PIM
- 49.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 410 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 410 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 410 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.64
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.53
- SOG
- 2.08
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 2.03
- BLK
- 2.25
- PIM
- 0.61
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 10 | 50 | 60 | 0.73 | 187 | 25:40 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 8 | 38 | 46 | 0.56 | 162 | 25:04 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 9 | 33 | 42 | 0.51 | 135 | 22:22 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 5 | 37 | 42 | 0.51 | 140 | 23:09 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 7 | 43 | 50 | 0.61 | 187 | 23:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:51 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25:50 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 26:47 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:06 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 29:33 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 27:54 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 28:04 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 28:47 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21:51 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28:09 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.1 | 10 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 79 | 286 |
| 2024-25 | 10.2 | 8 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 80 | 256 |
| 2023-24 | 6.4 | 9 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 74 | 191 |
| 2022-23 | 5.7 | 5 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 74 | 201 |
| 2021-22 | 10.0 | 7 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 79 | 246 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 25 assists, 32 points | 3 goals, 25 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 4 goals, 20 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 18 assists, 24 points | 3 goals, 14 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 3 goals, 22 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 14 assists, 15 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 22 assists, 27 points | 2 goals, 19 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
286 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.