Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 317 game sample- PTS
- 26.4
- SOG
- 101.0
- G
- 5.6
- A
- 20.8
- PPP
- 5.1
- HIT
- 52.8
- BLK
- 160.8
- PIM
- 34.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 317 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 317 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 317 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.32
- G
- 0.07
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 1.23
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.64
- BLK
- 1.97
- PIM
- 0.41
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 4 | 22 | 26 | 0.35 | 89 | 22:32 |
| 2024-25 | 67 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 0.25 | 65 | 20:28 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 0.37 | 134 | 22:37 |
| 2022-23 | 54 | 2 | 18 | 20 | 0.37 | 42 | 19:39 |
| 2021-22 | 30 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.33 | 33 | 19:05 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 18 | 23:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 24:35 |
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 24:15 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 27:43 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:59 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28:34 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:53 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:14 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20:01 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23:26 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22:02 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.8 | 4 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 59 | 139 |
| 2024-25 | 5.2 | 4 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 49 | 113 |
| 2023-24 | 8.7 | 10 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 73 | 197 |
| 2022-23 | 4.6 | 2 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 45 | 78 |
| 2021-22 | 1.6 | 3 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 24 | 46 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 16 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 6 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
139 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.