Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 218 game sample- PTS
- 37.3
- SOG
- 116.8
- G
- 15.4
- A
- 21.9
- PPP
- 7.3
- HIT
- 96.0
- BLK
- 43.1
- PIM
- 27.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 218 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 218 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 218 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.46
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.27
- SOG
- 1.42
- PPP
- 0.09
- HIT
- 1.17
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 15 | 15 | 30 | 0.44 | 104 | 15:10 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 12 | 29 | 41 | 0.52 | 105 | 14:50 |
| 2023-24 | 57 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 0.40 | 81 | 13:47 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.40 | 18 | 15:27 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 2 | 17:04 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9:44 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:34 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 22:32 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12:27 |
| Apr 14 | vs ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 |
| Apr 13 | @ STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 11 | @ NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 |
| Apr 7 | vs SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 |
| Apr 2 | vs VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:09 |
| Mar 28 | @ BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.8 | 15 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 60 | 161 |
| 2024-25 | 14.4 | 12 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 62 | 159 |
| 2023-24 | 9.1 | 11 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 52 | 114 |
| 2021-22 | 2.2 | 0 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 10 | 26 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 11 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 27 assists, 37 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
161 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.