Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 371 game sample- PTS
- 43.7
- SOG
- 110.4
- G
- 15.6
- A
- 28.1
- PPP
- 7.5
- HIT
- 47.8
- BLK
- 21.6
- PIM
- 24.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 371 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 371 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 371 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.53
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.34
- SOG
- 1.34
- PPP
- 0.09
- HIT
- 0.58
- BLK
- 0.26
- PIM
- 0.29
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 65 | 13 | 27 | 40 | 0.62 | 78 | 14:16 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 14 | 30 | 44 | 0.56 | 117 | 15:37 |
| 2023-24 | 61 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 0.31 | 91 | 13:17 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 0.49 | 125 | 15:19 |
| 2021-22 | 43 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 0.42 | 62 | 15:27 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 19 | 12:07 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 8 | 13:26 |
| 2021-22 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.26 | 27 | 12:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ COL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 |
| Apr 15 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 |
| Apr 13 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 |
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:09 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:39 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10.3 | 13 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 56 | 120 |
| 2024-25 | 13.9 | 14 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 72 | 175 |
| 2023-24 | 8.7 | 13 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 50 | 129 |
| 2022-23 | 17.0 | 18 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 71 | 177 |
| 2021-22 | 6.9 | 7 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 34 | 86 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 21 assists, 32 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 26 assists, 36 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 6 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 19 assists, 37 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
120 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.