Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 143 game sample- PTS
- 11.5
- SOG
- 62.6
- G
- 3.4
- A
- 8.2
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 66.6
- BLK
- 97.8
- PIM
- 22.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 143 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 143 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 143 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.14
- G
- 0.04
- A
- 0.10
- SOG
- 0.76
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 0.81
- BLK
- 1.20
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.13 | 61 | 15:56 |
| 2024-25 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.15 | 48 | 16:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 |
| Apr 11 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 |
| Apr 9 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18:36 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:38 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:52 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 |
| Apr 2 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 |
| Mar 31 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 |
| Mar 28 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.4 | 3 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 55 | 100 |
| 2024-25 | 2.1 | 3 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 39 | 73 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
100 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.