Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 352 game sample- PTS
- 36.7
- SOG
- 139.4
- G
- 18.6
- A
- 18.1
- PPP
- 0.4
- HIT
- 38.2
- BLK
- 22.1
- PIM
- 16.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 352 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 352 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 352 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.22
- SOG
- 1.70
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 0.46
- BLK
- 0.27
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 18 | 18 | 36 | 0.47 | 123 | 17:26 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 20 | 14 | 34 | 0.43 | 138 | 15:41 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 0.40 | 147 | 14:16 |
| 2022-23 | 46 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 0.61 | 91 | 16:55 |
| 2021-22 | 53 | 21 | 11 | 32 | 0.60 | 147 | 15:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 11 | 12:06 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.57 | 16 | 16:46 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:51 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:14 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:14 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 6 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.0 | 18 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 70 | 173 |
| 2024-25 | 16.5 | 20 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 68 | 183 |
| 2023-24 | 16.7 | 11 | minus 5.7 goals above expected | 72 | 202 |
| 2022-23 | 11.4 | 13 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 45 | 112 |
| 2021-22 | 16.1 | 21 | plus 4.9 goals above expected | 50 | 179 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 16 assists, 33 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 14 assists, 31 points | 0-0-0 | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 13 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
173 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 6
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.