Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 331 game sample- PTS
- 53.6
- SOG
- 153.0
- G
- 23.8
- A
- 29.8
- PPP
- 0.9
- HIT
- 34.3
- BLK
- 43.0
- PIM
- 18.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 331 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 331 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 331 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.29
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 1.87
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 0.41
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.22
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 25 | 27 | 52 | 0.68 | 159 | 18:14 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 0.87 | 142 | 16:28 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 0.37 | 113 | 13:45 |
| 2022-23 | 58 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 0.26 | 83 | 11:31 |
| 2021-22 | 33 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.27 | 34 | 11:50 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 3 | 17:37 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 | 8 | 14:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:18 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:24 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:38 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:15 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:27 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20:03 |
| Mar 24 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:36 |
| Mar 22 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:37 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.8 | 25 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 74 | 267 |
| 2024-25 | 21.6 | 30 | plus 8.4 goals above expected | 70 | 218 |
| 2023-24 | 11.5 | 6 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 66 | 167 |
| 2022-23 | 8.9 | 4 | minus 4.9 goals above expected | 48 | 105 |
| 2021-22 | 4.3 | 3 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 20 | 44 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 25 assists, 48 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 27 goals, 33 assists, 60 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 22 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 11 assists, 15 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
267 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.