Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 211 game sample- PTS
- 44.3
- SOG
- 154.1
- G
- 22.8
- A
- 21.5
- PPP
- 11.4
- HIT
- 111.7
- BLK
- 43.5
- PIM
- 68.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 211 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 211 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 211 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.54
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.88
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 1.36
- BLK
- 0.53
- PIM
- 0.84
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 63 | 17 | 15 | 32 | 0.51 | 110 | 13:56 |
| 2024-25 | 73 | 23 | 24 | 47 | 0.64 | 154 | 16:47 |
| 2023-24 | 75 | 18 | 16 | 34 | 0.45 | 142 | 13:28 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:03 |
| Mar 12 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 |
| Mar 5 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:58 |
| Mar 3 | vs NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 |
| Mar 2 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 |
| Feb 28 | vs NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:31 |
| Feb 26 | @ BOS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 |
| Feb 4 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:34 |
| Feb 3 | @ NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:10 |
| Jan 31 | @ STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:31 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.1 | 17 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 52 | 167 |
| 2024-25 | 22.4 | 23 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 72 | 231 |
| 2023-24 | 19.3 | 18 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 63 | 203 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 13 assists, 23 points | 7 goals, 2 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points | 8 goals, 3 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 14 assists, 26 points | 6 goals, 2 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
167 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.