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Nikita Nesterenko

Nikita Nesterenko

ANA·FJersey number #13
vsMIN
Latest captured market
Jan 2 · 10:30 PM ET

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 61 game sample
PTS
25.1
SOG
92.5
G
7.0
A
18.2
PPP
0.2
HIT
156.1
BLK
24.4
PIM
18.6

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 61 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

Among forwards · 973 ranked

Production

Style & role

Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 61 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 61 games incl. playoffs
PTS
0.30
G
0.08
A
0.22
SOG
1.12
PPP
0.00
HIT
1.92
BLK
0.28
PIM
0.22

Season totals

regular season
SeasonGPGAPP/GPSOGTOI
2025-26291890.313112:16
2024-25204260.302010:19
2023-2431010.33711:31
2022-2391010.112313:17

Last 10 · game log

cleared the Jan 2 lineG 0/10PPP 0/10
DateOppSOGGAPPPHITBLKPIMTOI
Jan 13vs DAL100022011:27
Jan 10@ BUF100010010:47
Jan 5@ WSH300020012:25
Jan 2vs MIN000030014:47
Dec 31vs TBL100011013:24
Dec 29vs SJS301030012:39
Nov 30@ CHI00001009:48
Nov 28vs LAK100010014:03
Nov 26vs VAN300000211:22
Nov 22vs VGK00002007:49

One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Jan 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season
SeasonxGGGAxGPAtt
2025-263.51minus 2.5 goals above expected2447
2024-252.34plus 1.7 goals above expected1532
2023-240.81plus 0.2 goals above expected39
2022-231.91minus 0.9 goals above expected828

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season
SeasonEven strengthPower playShorthanded
2025-261 goal, 8 assists, 9 points0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
2024-254 goals, 2 assists, 6 points0-0-00-0-0
2023-241 goal, 0 assists, 1 point0-0-00-0-0
2022-231 goal, 0 assists, 1 point0-0-00-0-0

Shot locations

47 attempts · 1 goals · 2025-26
Missed the net (16)Shot on goal (30)Goal (1)

Markets · Jan 2

modeled projections
G
Anytime goal
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
14%
A
Assists
No line posted.
PPP
Power-play points
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
HITS
Hits
No line posted.
BLK
Blocked shots
No line posted.
PIM
Penalty minutes
No line posted.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.