Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 191 game sample- PTS
- 33.0
- SOG
- 132.0
- G
- 15.4
- A
- 17.6
- PPP
- 8.8
- HIT
- 46.3
- BLK
- 26.5
- PIM
- 24.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 191 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 191 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 191 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.40
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.61
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.56
- BLK
- 0.32
- PIM
- 0.30
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 12 | 13 | 25 | 0.34 | 110 | 14:22 |
| 2024-25 | 54 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 0.50 | 111 | 16:04 |
| 2023-24 | 63 | 14 | 20 | 34 | 0.54 | 90 | 15:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:22 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:47 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:28 |
| Mar 20 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 |
| Mar 18 | vs STL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 |
| Mar 16 | @ DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.2 | 12 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 64 | 153 |
| 2024-25 | 13.8 | 13 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 51 | 161 |
| 2023-24 | 10.9 | 14 | plus 3.1 goals above expected | 50 | 123 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 8 assists, 18 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 6 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 8 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 17 assists, 30 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
153 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.