Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 82 game sample- PTS
- 36.7
- SOG
- 113.5
- G
- 16.0
- A
- 20.7
- PPP
- 3.2
- HIT
- 102.7
- BLK
- 42.2
- PIM
- 36.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 82 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 82 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 82 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 1.38
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.25
- BLK
- 0.51
- PIM
- 0.44
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 0.45 | 108 | 14:44 |
| 2024-25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 2 | 9:27 |
| 2023-24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 8:50 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:54 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:22 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 19:16 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:30 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 5 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.9 | 15 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 66 | 175 |
| 2024-25 | 0.2 | 1 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 1 | 2 |
| 2023-24 | 0.1 | 0 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 2 | 2 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
175 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 5
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.