Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 265 game sample- PTS
- 46.3
- SOG
- 159.2
- G
- 13.8
- A
- 32.5
- PPP
- 11.1
- HIT
- 40.2
- BLK
- 143.9
- PIM
- 36.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 265 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 265 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 265 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.40
- SOG
- 1.94
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.49
- BLK
- 1.76
- PIM
- 0.44
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 15 | 36 | 51 | 0.64 | 173 | 24:41 |
| 2024-25 | 78 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 0.37 | 124 | 25:32 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 8 | 39 | 47 | 0.57 | 136 | 24:58 |
| 2022-23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 20:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.91 | 29 | 29:44 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 27:04 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 14:33 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 32:06 |
| May 11 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 29:19 |
| May 9 | vs COLPO | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 29:37 |
| May 5 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 28:31 |
| May 3 | @ COLPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25:31 |
| Apr 30 | vs DALPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29:53 |
| Apr 28 | @ DALPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26:10 |
| Apr 25 | vs DALPO | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 35:47 |
| Apr 22 | vs DALPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 38:56 |
| Apr 20 | @ DALPO | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:42 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.0 | 15 | plus 6.0 goals above expected | 75 | 255 |
| 2024-25 | 5.8 | 10 | plus 4.2 goals above expected | 72 | 188 |
| 2023-24 | 8.4 | 8 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 71 | 186 |
| 2022-23 | 0.0 | 0 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 2 | 3 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points | 1 goal, 10 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 26 assists, 31 points | 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
255 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.