Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 281 game sample- PTS
- 30.2
- SOG
- 102.6
- G
- 8.7
- A
- 21.5
- PPP
- 10.0
- HIT
- 23.1
- BLK
- 105.2
- PIM
- 34.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 281 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 281 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 281 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.37
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.25
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 0.28
- BLK
- 1.29
- PIM
- 0.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 8 | 24 | 32 | 0.41 | 101 | 21:33 |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 0.29 | 63 | 19:55 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.29 | 55 | 19:37 |
| 2022-23 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 17:37 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 4 | 28 | 32 | 0.40 | 137 | 19:53 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.40 | 16 | 22:11 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 22:41 |
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17:33 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 29:12 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:13 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29:59 |
| Apr 27 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:05 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:01 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 20:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6.6 | 8 | plus 1.4 goals above expected | 67 | 164 |
| 2024-25 | 3.7 | 7 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 52 | 109 |
| 2023-24 | 2.4 | 3 | plus 0.6 goals above expected | 28 | 83 |
| 2022-23 | 0.4 | 0 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 6 | 12 |
| 2021-22 | 8.7 | 4 | minus 4.7 goals above expected | 77 | 202 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 16 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 8 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 4 goals, 16 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 12 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
164 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.