Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 259 game sample- PTS
- 49.2
- SOG
- 173.8
- G
- 13.0
- A
- 36.2
- PPP
- 13.1
- HIT
- 26.5
- BLK
- 20.3
- PIM
- 26.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 259 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 259 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 259 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.60
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.44
- SOG
- 2.12
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 0.32
- BLK
- 0.24
- PIM
- 0.32
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 12 | 44 | 56 | 0.69 | 176 | 16:37 |
| 2024-25 | 68 | 10 | 22 | 32 | 0.47 | 134 | 13:52 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 0.49 | 172 | 13:58 |
| 2022-23 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 0.63 | 54 | 16:34 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 14 | 13:23 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs ANA | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 |
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:08 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:57 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:26 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.2 | 12 | minus 7.2 goals above expected | 77 | 259 |
| 2024-25 | 12.5 | 10 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 62 | 172 |
| 2023-24 | 18.0 | 16 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 73 | 222 |
| 2022-23 | 5.9 | 7 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 23 | 61 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 28 assists, 39 points | 1 goal, 16 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 18 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 13 goals, 16 assists, 29 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
259 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.