Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 205 game sample- PTS
- 30.1
- SOG
- 85.4
- G
- 7.0
- A
- 23.2
- PPP
- 8.8
- HIT
- 36.8
- BLK
- 108.7
- PIM
- 22.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 205 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 205 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 205 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.37
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.28
- SOG
- 1.04
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.44
- BLK
- 1.33
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 73 | 7 | 19 | 26 | 0.36 | 72 | 16:55 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 0.43 | 92 | 19:32 |
| 2023-24 | 41 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.32 | 43 | 16:58 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 14:14 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.36 | 14 | 17:12 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:18 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:17 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16:08 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:53 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:19 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:20 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 |
| Apr 5 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16:16 |
| Mar 28 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:47 |
| Mar 25 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:29 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.5 | 7 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 58 | 126 |
| 2024-25 | 6.6 | 5 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 66 | 153 |
| 2023-24 | 2.1 | 4 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 32 | 59 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 16 assists, 21 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 15 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
126 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.