Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 192 game sample- PTS
- 45.6
- SOG
- 194.3
- G
- 19.8
- A
- 25.8
- PPP
- 15.3
- HIT
- 28.2
- BLK
- 28.2
- PIM
- 29.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 192 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 192 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 192 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.31
- SOG
- 2.38
- PPP
- 0.19
- HIT
- 0.34
- BLK
- 0.34
- PIM
- 0.36
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 18 | 27 | 45 | 0.56 | 197 | 16:39 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 24 | 23 | 47 | 0.61 | 180 | 17:35 |
| 2023-24 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0.26 | 58 | 12:37 |
| 2022-23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 14:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:28 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19:15 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:17 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:00 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Mar 26 | vs ANA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.3 | 18 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 73 | 289 |
| 2024-25 | 21.5 | 24 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 76 | 268 |
| 2023-24 | 6.2 | 3 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 32 | 91 |
| 2022-23 | 0.4 | 0 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 1 | 5 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 7 goals, 8 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 19 goals, 11 assists, 30 points | 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
289 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.