Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 227 game sample- PTS
- 45.3
- SOG
- 161.0
- G
- 7.8
- A
- 37.5
- PPP
- 17.9
- HIT
- 23.3
- BLK
- 63.6
- PIM
- 30.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 227 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 227 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 227 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.55
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.46
- SOG
- 1.97
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 0.28
- BLK
- 0.78
- PIM
- 0.38
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 0.51 | 150 | 23:01 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 7 | 37 | 44 | 0.62 | 121 | 21:10 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 9 | 38 | 47 | 0.57 | 135 | 21:28 |
| 2022-23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | 2 | 16:14 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 22:20 |
| 2022-23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.67 | 4 | 19:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:09 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23:08 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:43 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:22 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:05 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:07 |
| Mar 28 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:21 |
| Mar 26 | @ NSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:21 |
| Mar 24 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:29 |
| Mar 20 | @ WSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:51 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.9 | 6 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 62 | 214 |
| 2024-25 | 8.8 | 7 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 58 | 179 |
| 2023-24 | 7.8 | 9 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 74 | 199 |
| 2022-23 | 0.2 | 1 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 1 | 2 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 2 goals, 11 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 21 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 16 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 17 assists, 22 points | 4 goals, 21 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
214 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.