Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 114 game sample- PTS
- 19.5
- SOG
- 82.2
- G
- 7.6
- A
- 11.9
- PPP
- 0.6
- HIT
- 200.4
- BLK
- 20.1
- PIM
- 28.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 114 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 114 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 114 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.24
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.14
- SOG
- 1.00
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.46
- BLK
- 0.24
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 66 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 0.21 | 65 | 12:01 |
| 2024-25 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 0.33 | 34 | 10:40 |
| 2022-23 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 16 | 8:23 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:06 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:02 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:05 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11:52 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:08 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.1 | 4 | minus 5.1 goals above expected | 53 | 116 |
| 2024-25 | 3.6 | 7 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 23 | 47 |
| 2022-23 | 1.2 | 2 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 9 | 19 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 3 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
116 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.