Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 314 game sample- PTS
- 48.8
- SOG
- 172.1
- G
- 19.7
- A
- 29.1
- PPP
- 13.0
- HIT
- 97.1
- BLK
- 36.8
- PIM
- 49.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 314 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 314 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 314 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.60
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 2.10
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 1.18
- BLK
- 0.45
- PIM
- 0.60
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 17 | 24 | 41 | 0.55 | 146 | 15:19 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 22 | 30 | 52 | 0.68 | 180 | 16:53 |
| 2023-24 | 64 | 19 | 23 | 42 | 0.66 | 130 | 16:17 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 0.54 | 161 | 15:22 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.33 | 12 | 13:05 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.60 | 25 | 12:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9:09 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11:20 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:20 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 |
| Apr 22 | @ EDMPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Apr 20 | @ EDMPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21.5 | 17 | minus 4.5 goals above expected | 72 | 258 |
| 2024-25 | 26.5 | 22 | minus 4.5 goals above expected | 72 | 279 |
| 2023-24 | 16.4 | 19 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 62 | 191 |
| 2022-23 | 20.6 | 17 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 73 | 216 |
| 2021-22 | 1.2 | 2 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 8 | 15 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 19 assists, 30 points | 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 24 assists, 40 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 18 assists, 32 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 19 assists, 29 points | 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
258 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.