Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 113 game sample- PTS
- 31.0
- SOG
- 112.1
- G
- 15.2
- A
- 15.7
- PPP
- 2.9
- HIT
- 150.3
- BLK
- 49.8
- PIM
- 17.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 113 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 113 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 113 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.38
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.19
- SOG
- 1.36
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 1.84
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.22
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 17 | 18 | 35 | 0.43 | 116 | 15:33 |
| 2024-25 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.24 | 24 | 13:01 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 11:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 7 | 15:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16:50 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:53 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.2 | 17 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 70 | 172 |
| 2024-25 | 3.3 | 3 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 16 | 42 |
| 2023-24 | 0.6 | 0 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 4 | 7 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
172 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.