Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 159 game sample- PTS
- 28.2
- SOG
- 112.8
- G
- 11.1
- A
- 17.1
- PPP
- 3.0
- HIT
- 26.1
- BLK
- 120.0
- PIM
- 35.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 159 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 159 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 159 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.34
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.37
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 0.31
- BLK
- 1.47
- PIM
- 0.43
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 0.38 | 101 | 19:40 |
| 2024-25 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 26 | 14:59 |
| 2023-24 | 60 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 0.32 | 73 | 19:52 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 6 | 20:40 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:39 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24:03 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 21:12 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 23:01 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:40 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17:30 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:23 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 18:29 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:55 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.3 | 11 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 61 | 161 |
| 2024-25 | 1.0 | 2 | plus 1.0 goals above expected | 21 | 41 |
| 2023-24 | 4.5 | 3 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 50 | 112 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 14 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
161 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.