Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 97 game sample- PTS
- 21.2
- SOG
- 105.3
- G
- 9.3
- A
- 11.9
- PPP
- 0.6
- HIT
- 81.7
- BLK
- 47.3
- PIM
- 3.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 97 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 97 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 97 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.26
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.14
- SOG
- 1.28
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 0.99
- BLK
- 0.57
- PIM
- 0.04
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 0.26 | 87 | 13:10 |
| 2024-25 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.21 | 32 | 11:07 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 8 | 14:31 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18:19 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:11 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:20 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:29 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17:15 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:54 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.6 | 8 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 56 | 120 |
| 2024-25 | 3.0 | 2 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 19 | 49 |
| 2023-24 | 0.6 | 1 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 4 | 11 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 9 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
120 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.