Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 86 game sample- PTS
- 30.6
- SOG
- 113.8
- G
- 15.5
- A
- 15.1
- PPP
- 5.0
- HIT
- 65.3
- BLK
- 58.8
- PIM
- 23.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 86 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 86 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 86 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.37
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.39
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.79
- BLK
- 0.72
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 62 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 0.39 | 91 | 12:14 |
| 2024-25 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.29 | 23 | 10:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:44 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9:34 |
| Mar 22 | vs COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Mar 20 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:23 |
| Mar 18 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 |
| Mar 14 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Mar 12 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:30 |
| Mar 11 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8:46 |
| Mar 9 | vs CGY | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:18 |
| Mar 7 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9:36 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.2 | 12 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 49 | 128 |
| 2024-25 | 2.9 | 4 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 18 | 34 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
128 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.