Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 213 game sample- PTS
- 65.8
- SOG
- 194.6
- G
- 28.1
- A
- 37.8
- PPP
- 16.3
- HIT
- 26.3
- BLK
- 35.3
- PIM
- 27.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 213 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 213 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 213 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.81
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.46
- SOG
- 2.38
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 0.31
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.33
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 29 | 38 | 67 | 0.96 | 193 | 19:09 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 0.59 | 114 | 16:14 |
| 2023-24 | 55 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 0.53 | 109 | 18:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0.92 | 41 | 18:09 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 |
| May 12 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:09 |
| May 10 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 |
| May 8 | vs VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 |
| May 6 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:03 |
| May 4 | @ VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 |
| Apr 30 | vs EDMPO | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:35 |
| Apr 28 | @ EDMPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 |
| Apr 26 | vs EDMPO | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 |
| Apr 24 | vs EDMPO | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:53 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 25.3 | 29 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 68 | 277 |
| 2024-25 | 14.8 | 19 | plus 4.2 goals above expected | 66 | 174 |
| 2023-24 | 12.1 | 12 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 50 | 144 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23 goals, 23 assists, 46 points | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 21 assists, 35 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 12 assists, 20 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
277 attempts · 29 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.