Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 68 game sample- PTS
- 25.5
- SOG
- 82.7
- G
- 8.5
- A
- 17.0
- PPP
- 8.4
- HIT
- 21.7
- BLK
- 65.2
- PIM
- 22.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 68 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 68 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 68 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.31
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.00
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 0.25
- BLK
- 0.79
- PIM
- 0.26
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 0.31 | 68 | 16:13 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:06 |
| Apr 13 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:52 |
| Apr 7 | vs CBJ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 |
| Apr 5 | vs MIN | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15:04 |
| Apr 4 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 |
| Mar 6 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 |
| Mar 4 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 |
| Mar 2 | @ NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 |
| Feb 28 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 |
| Feb 26 | @ OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.8 | 7 | plus 3.2 goals above expected | 60 | 122 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
122 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.