Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 143 game sample- PTS
- 62.8
- SOG
- 177.1
- G
- 25.4
- A
- 37.4
- PPP
- 17.7
- HIT
- 18.2
- BLK
- 16.0
- PIM
- 19.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 143 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 143 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 143 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.77
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.46
- SOG
- 2.17
- PPP
- 0.22
- HIT
- 0.21
- BLK
- 0.19
- PIM
- 0.24
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 24 | 35 | 59 | 0.86 | 166 | 18:11 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 18 | 27 | 45 | 0.61 | 127 | 15:51 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22:26 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:40 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:52 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:43 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.5 | 24 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 64 | 240 |
| 2024-25 | 14.0 | 18 | plus 4.0 goals above expected | 65 | 187 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 26 assists, 42 points | 8 goals, 9 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 20 assists, 33 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
240 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.