Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 77 game sample- PTS
- 33.9
- SOG
- 118.7
- G
- 18.8
- A
- 15.1
- PPP
- 8.9
- HIT
- 60.4
- BLK
- 29.3
- PIM
- 16.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 77 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 77 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 77 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.41
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.45
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.73
- BLK
- 0.35
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 17 | 13 | 30 | 0.42 | 103 | 12:19 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 8 | 11:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:16 |
| Apr 13 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 |
| Apr 11 | vs MIN | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:27 |
| Apr 9 | @ UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:19 |
| Apr 7 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 |
| Apr 6 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 |
| Apr 4 | @ SJS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11:46 |
| Apr 2 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 |
| Mar 29 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:42 |
| Mar 28 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:40 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.5 | 17 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 61 | 149 |
| 2024-25 | 1.1 | 0 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 5 | 14 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 9 assists, 21 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
149 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.