Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 169 game sample- PTS
- 53.0
- SOG
- 174.8
- G
- 20.9
- A
- 32.0
- PPP
- 13.0
- HIT
- 33.3
- BLK
- 22.3
- PIM
- 63.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 169 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 169 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 169 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.65
- G
- 0.26
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 2.14
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 0.40
- BLK
- 0.27
- PIM
- 0.78
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 20 | 31 | 51 | 0.63 | 163 | 14:50 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 26 | 37 | 63 | 0.79 | 199 | 16:41 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 13 | 11:49 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9:29 |
| May 4 | @ CARPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 |
| May 2 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:08 |
| Apr 29 | vs PITPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Apr 25 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 |
| Apr 22 | vs PITPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8:08 |
| Apr 20 | @ PITPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9:32 |
| Apr 18 | @ PITPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 |
| Apr 14 | vs MTL | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:18 |
| Apr 13 | vs CAR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.9 | 20 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 75 | 232 |
| 2024-25 | 23.1 | 26 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 78 | 282 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 23 assists, 39 points | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 28 assists, 46 points | 8 goals, 9 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
232 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.