Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 37 game sample- PTS
- 44.1
- SOG
- 154.5
- G
- 13.3
- A
- 30.8
- PPP
- 15.3
- HIT
- 26.4
- BLK
- 62.2
- PIM
- 5.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 37 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 37 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 37 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.54
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.38
- SOG
- 1.89
- PPP
- 0.19
- HIT
- 0.30
- BLK
- 0.76
- PIM
- 0.05
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 37 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 0.54 | 70 | 15:10 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 |
| Apr 11 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:58 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 |
| Apr 7 | @ DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:02 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:09 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:55 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:51 |
| Mar 26 | vs ANA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.4 | 6 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 36 | 102 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
102 attempts · 6 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.