Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 121 game sample- PTS
- 42.9
- SOG
- 115.6
- G
- 19.4
- A
- 23.6
- PPP
- 2.7
- HIT
- 82.2
- BLK
- 47.5
- PIM
- 13.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 121 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 121 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 121 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.52
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 1.41
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 1.00
- BLK
- 0.58
- PIM
- 0.16
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 21 | 25 | 46 | 0.57 | 118 | 16:26 |
| 2024-25 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0.33 | 40 | 15:52 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 7 | 16:36 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ WPG | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 |
| Apr 15 | @ CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 |
| Apr 13 | @ NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Apr 11 | vs VAN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 |
| Apr 9 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:29 |
| Apr 8 | vs EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Apr 6 | vs CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:36 |
| Apr 4 | vs NSH | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 |
| Apr 2 | vs TOR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:53 |
| Apr 1 | vs ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:50 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.7 | 21 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 72 | 167 |
| 2024-25 | 4.6 | 5 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 24 | 55 |
| 2023-24 | 0.6 | 0 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 6 | 11 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 23 assists, 42 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
167 attempts · 21 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.