Auston Matthews

Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Toronto Maple Leafs schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.

18% of a season's rate against centres carries into the next: −0.20 × 18% ≈ −0.04 per 100 attempts. The share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for his position.

Against centres, not raw goals above expected. Goals minus xG was −3.1: 27 goals on 30.1 xG, or −0.95 per 100 attempts. Centres as a group scored −0.75 per 100 against xG, so against centres his rate was −0.20. Penalty-shot goals are left out: the model does not rate penalty shots.

Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figures assume the same number of attempts. A gap that persists means he reliably scores above what this model expects, which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.

This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.