Pool: every defenceman who played in those seasons · Sample: 165 games
No production figure in the top quarter of his pool. Top quarter in hits, which describes his role rather than his quality.
Production
Production: percentile among 509 defencemen, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Points
22
0.19
Goals
18
0.04
Assists
28
0.16
Shots on goal
29
0.97
Power-play points
45
0.02
Style and role
Style and role: percentile among 509 defencemen, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Hits
78
1.49
Blocked shots
74
1.42
Penalty minutes
34
0.37
Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate ›
Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.
Blocked shots per game played, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons; the dotted ring is the 2026-27 projection, the per-game rate the projections board uses. GP: games played.
What next
2026-27, projected
Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule
If he plays all 84 Pittsburgh Penguins games at his modelled per-game rate
Points
16.4
Goals
3.1
Assists
13.3
Shots on goal
81.1
Power-play points
2.0
Hits
124.8
Blocked shots
119.4
Penalty minutes
31.1
Based on 165 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.
How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on ›
Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Pittsburgh Penguins schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.
Shooting
Where he shoots, and how he finishes
Shot density · 2025-26 · open play, regular season
FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell
Open play · regular season · goals
Goals against a league-average finisher, by season
In 2025-26 he scored 0 where a league-average finisher would score 0.2 from his chances: 0.2 fewer.
2025-26 · on the rink0 G · 0.2 avg · −0.2 · 5 GP
2024-250 G · 0.1 avg · −0.1 · 4 GP
2023-240 G · 1.1 avg · −1.1 · 14 GP
2022-234 G · 5.1 avg · −1.1 · 61 GP
2021-225 G · 2.8 avg · +2.2 · 37 GP
Goals
A league-average finisher
What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts ›
The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.
Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season
Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season
G
2025-26
0.2
0
−0.2
5
11
2024-25
0.1
0
−0.1
4
9
2023-24
1.1
0
−1.1
14
24
2022-23
5.1
4
−1.1
61
127
2021-22
2.8
5
+2.2
37
69
G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).
Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.
Last 10 games
Last 10 games, newest first
Date
Opp
G
A
HIT
BLK
PIM
Oct 23
@ FLA
0
0
0
0
1
4
0
16:39
Oct 21
vs VAN
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
17:59
Oct 18
@ SJS
3
0
0
0
1
3
0
18:51
Oct 16
@ LAK
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
17:36
Oct 11
vs NYR
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
18:10
Oct 9
vs NYI
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
15:21
Oct 7
@ NYR
1
0
0
0
2
1
0
15:36
Apr 15
@ SEA
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
11:22
Nov 13
@ COL
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
5:56
Oct 29
@ SJS
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
11:27
Markets · latest captured, not current
▸Oct 16 at Los Angeles Kings · 10:00 PM ET
The prices posted for a game already played. Open to see them.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709[−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
Pre-game snapshotCaptured Oct 1, 8:21 PM ET
This game’s markets: the posted line, the model’s projection and its chance of the over
