Erik Karlsson

Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Pittsburgh Penguins schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.

18% of a season's rate against defencemen carries into the next: +1.01 × 18% ≈ +0.18 per 100 attempts. The share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for his position.

Against defencemen, not raw goals above expected. Goals minus xG was +3.6: 15 goals on 11.4 xG, or +1.24 per 100 attempts. Defencemen as a group scored +0.23 per 100 against xG, so against defencemen his rate was +1.01. Penalty-shot goals are left out: the model does not rate penalty shots.

Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figures assume the same number of attempts. A gap that persists means he reliably scores above what this model expects, which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.

This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.