Matt Nieto — stats, projections, finishing and game log

How good

Among 980 forwards, 2021-22 to 2026-27

Pool: every forward who played in those seasons · Sample: 212 games

No production figure in the top quarter of his pool.

Production

Production: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat	Pctl	Adjusted per game
Points	12	0.19
Goals	16	0.08
Assists	16	0.12
Shots on goal	28	1.09
Power-play points	27	0.02

Style and role

Style and role: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat	Pctl	Adjusted per game
Hits	36	0.97
Blocked shots	53	0.54
Penalty minutes	11	0.19

Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate

Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.

How he got here

Each regular season

Stat

PTS G A SOG PPP HIT BLK PIM

Show

Per GP Totals

Power-play points, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons. GP: games played.

Shooting

Where he shoots, and how he finishes

Shot density · 2024-25 · open play, regular season

FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell

2 more attempts came from outside the offensive zone and are not in the grid.

Open play · regular season · goals

Goals against a league-average finisher, by season

In 2024-25 he scored 1 where a league-average finisher would score 2.2 from his chances: 1.2 fewer.

2024-25 · on the rink1 G · 2.2 avg · −1.2 · 22 GP
2023-241 G · 1.9 avg · −0.9 · 14 GP
2022-2312 G · 13.4 avg · −1.4 · 69 GP
2021-226 G · 7.4 avg · −1.4 · 56 GP

Goals
A league-average finisher

What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts

The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.

Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season

Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season		G
2024-25	2.2	1	−1.2	22	40
2023-24	1.9	1	−0.9	14	23
2022-23	13.4	12	−1.4	69	147
2021-22	7.4	6	−1.4	56	106

G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).

Detail

The record

Playoffs

Games

Regular season Playoffs

Playoffs, by season
Season		G	A	P
2022-23	7	0	0	0	0.00	9	11:41

2024-25 regular season by strength · G-A-P

Even strength: 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points
Power play: 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
Shorthanded: 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points

Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.

Last 10 games

Last 10 games, newest first
Date	Opp		HIT	BLK	PIM
Apr 8	vs CHI	1	1	0	2	12:55
Feb 23	vs NYR	4	2	0	0	10:41
Feb 22	vs WSH	1	1	1	0	12:27
Feb 8	@ PHI	1	3	0	0	11:35
Jan 27	@ SJS	2	4	0	0	10:28
Jan 25	@ SEA	0	1	0	0	10:12
Jan 23	@ ANA	2	1	0	0	9:41
Jan 20	@ LAK	1	0	2	0	13:53
Jan 12	vs TBL	1	2	0	0	10:25
Jan 11	vs OTT	2	0	1	2	11:58