insights
Does the projection ordering hold up?
Projection ordering carries information well beyond the top-ranked players. Evidence varies by statistic, season and rank region, and many shallower-region negatives are inconclusive because the available data cannot resolve the preregistered practical effect.
Points, Goals and Shots on Goal are three separately preregistered surfaces, reported independently. They are not combined, ranked against each other, or summarised into one score.
| Season | 1-25 | 26-50 | 51-100 | 101-200 | 201-350 | 351-550 | 551+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 | Ordering evidence | Inconclusive | Inconclusive | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence |
| 2022–23 | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence |
| 2023–24 | Ordering evidence | Inconclusive | Inconclusive | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence |
| 2024–25 | Ordering evidence | Inconclusive | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence |
| 2025–26 | Ordering evidence | Inconclusive | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence | Ordering evidence |
Ordering evidenceEvidence, below thresholdInverted orderingInverted, below thresholdNo ordering evidenceInconclusive — the design could not have told
Full statistical results
Every cell above, with the figure behind it: s, its 95% interval, and whether the region could have resolved the preregistered effect at all. “How to read a cell” is below the table.
| Season | Ranks 1-25 | Ranks 26-50 | Ranks 51-100 | Ranks 101-200 | Ranks 201-350 | Ranks 351-550 | Ranks 551+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 | Ordering evidence s 0.685 95% interval 0.565–0.795 ◇ not resolvable | Inconclusive s 0.531 95% interval 0.434–0.627 ◇ not resolvable | Inconclusive s 0.556 95% interval 0.487–0.622 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.602 95% interval 0.565–0.639 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.579 95% interval 0.539–0.619 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.583 95% interval 0.551–0.614 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.599 95% interval 0.564–0.634 ◆ resolvable |
| 2022–23 | Ordering evidence s 0.752 95% interval 0.665–0.837 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.611 95% interval 0.521–0.701 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.628 95% interval 0.570–0.684 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.616 95% interval 0.574–0.656 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.592 95% interval 0.559–0.625 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.604 95% interval 0.575–0.631 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.632 95% interval 0.595–0.669 ◆ resolvable |
| 2023–24 | Ordering evidence s 0.677 95% interval 0.585–0.761 ◇ not resolvable | Inconclusive s 0.499 95% interval 0.391–0.612 ◇ not resolvable | Inconclusive s 0.558 95% interval 0.495–0.619 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.596 95% interval 0.553–0.637 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.610 95% interval 0.577–0.642 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.610 95% interval 0.581–0.641 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.571 95% interval 0.534–0.609 ◆ resolvable |
| 2024–25 | Ordering evidence s 0.747 95% interval 0.661–0.821 ◇ not resolvable | Inconclusive s 0.514 95% interval 0.421–0.620 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.590 95% interval 0.532–0.648 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.631 95% interval 0.596–0.665 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.609 95% interval 0.576–0.643 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.586 95% interval 0.552–0.618 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.614 95% interval 0.564–0.663 ◇ not resolvable |
| 2025–26 | Ordering evidence s 0.681 95% interval 0.576–0.779 ◇ not resolvable | Inconclusive s 0.542 95% interval 0.439–0.643 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.613 95% interval 0.548–0.675 ◇ not resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.590 95% interval 0.551–0.630 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.582 95% interval 0.544–0.616 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.598 95% interval 0.568–0.626 ◆ resolvable | Ordering evidence s 0.557 95% interval 0.521–0.594 ◆ resolvable |
How to read a cell
- s
- The share of correctly ordered player pairs, aggregated equally over three in-season cutoffs. 0.5 is the value a shuffled board would produce.
- 95% interval
- Uncertainty around the observed s. It says how precisely s is estimated — it is not a significance test and played no part in the verdict.
- The verdict
- Comes from comparing sagainst that region’s own shuffled-board range — a separate quantity from the interval above, answering is this distinguishable from no ordering at all?
- ◇ not resolvable, and why “inconclusive” is not a negative
- Some regions carry too few comparisons for the method to detect an effect of the size declared in advance, even if one existed. There, a non-finding is reported as inconclusive — meaning the design could not have told. It does not mean the ordering failed.
Five seasons, three preregistered statistics, seven rank regions. Method and thresholds were fixed before the data was computed. Computed at revision 44ddb299004f.