Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 166 game sample- PTS
- 35.3
- SOG
- 133.5
- G
- 17.1
- A
- 18.2
- PPP
- 4.3
- HIT
- 84.1
- BLK
- 28.2
- PIM
- 20.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 166 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 166 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 166 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.22
- SOG
- 1.63
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 1.02
- BLK
- 0.34
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 0.50 | 147 | 15:29 |
| 2024-25 | 73 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 0.34 | 80 | 12:41 |
| 2023-24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 10:56 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 14 | 16:48 |
| 2024-25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 10:32 |
| 2023-24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 7:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30 | @ MINPO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 |
| Apr 28 | vs MINPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 |
| Apr 25 | @ MINPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:50 |
| Apr 22 | @ MINPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20:59 |
| Apr 20 | vs MINPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 |
| Apr 18 | vs MINPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15:59 |
| Apr 15 | @ BUF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 |
| Apr 13 | @ TOR | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 |
| Apr 11 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:10 |
| Apr 9 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.7 | 20 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 75 | 194 |
| 2024-25 | 12.8 | 11 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 60 | 129 |
| 2023-24 | 0.2 | 0 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 1 | 5 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 17 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 12 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
194 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.