Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 326 game sample- PTS
- 50.9
- SOG
- 168.6
- G
- 24.5
- A
- 26.4
- PPP
- 8.6
- HIT
- 24.6
- BLK
- 18.0
- PIM
- 30.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 326 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 326 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 326 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.62
- G
- 0.30
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 2.06
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 0.29
- BLK
- 0.22
- PIM
- 0.37
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 25 | 22 | 47 | 0.57 | 159 | 15:59 |
| 2024-25 | 77 | 27 | 41 | 68 | 0.88 | 173 | 18:11 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 28 | 22 | 50 | 0.61 | 226 | 16:23 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 0.42 | 125 | 13:39 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 16:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 13:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 |
| Apr 29 | @ VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 |
| Apr 27 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:18 |
| Apr 24 | vs VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Apr 21 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 |
| Apr 19 | @ VGKPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 |
| Apr 16 | vs STL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 |
| Apr 14 | vs WPG | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 |
| Apr 12 | @ CGY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 |
| Apr 11 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.4 | 25 | plus 5.6 goals above expected | 78 | 241 |
| 2024-25 | 21.1 | 27 | plus 5.9 goals above expected | 76 | 275 |
| 2023-24 | 23.7 | 28 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 79 | 319 |
| 2022-23 | 14.5 | 12 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 69 | 180 |
| 2021-22 | 0.4 | 0 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 2 | 4 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 goals, 20 assists, 42 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 29 assists, 50 points | 6 goals, 12 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 25 goals, 18 assists, 43 points | 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 17 assists, 27 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
241 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.