Pool: every forward who played in those seasons · Sample: 350 games
No production figure in the top quarter of his pool. Top quarter in penalty minutes, which describes his role rather than his quality.
Production
Production: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Points
38
0.30
Goals
34
0.11
Assists
44
0.19
Shots on goal
40
1.25
Power-play points
23
0.02
Style and role
Style and role: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Hits
61
1.31
Blocked shots
32
0.45
Penalty minutes
76
0.52
Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate ›
Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.
Shots on goal per game played, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons; the dotted ring is the 2026-27 projection, the per-game rate the projections board uses. GP: games played.
What next
2026-27, projected
Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule
If he plays all 84 Detroit Red Wings games at his modelled per-game rate
Points
25.2
Goals
9.5
Assists
15.7
Shots on goal
105.0
Power-play points
1.4
Hits
109.8
Blocked shots
37.6
Penalty minutes
44.1
Based on 350 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.
How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on ›
Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Detroit Red Wings schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.
Shooting
Where he shoots, and how he finishes
Shot density · 2025-26 · open play, regular season
FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell
6 more attempts came from outside the offensive zone and are not in the grid.
Open play · regular season · goals
Goals against a league-average finisher, by season
In 2025-26 he scored 6 where a league-average finisher would score 5.3 from his chances: 0.7 more.
2025-26 · on the rink6 G · 5.3 avg · +0.7 · 52 GP
2024-2510 G · 11.0 avg · −1.0 · 66 GP
2023-2414 G · 13.7 avg · +0.3 · 74 GP
2022-235 G · 7.8 avg · −2.8 · 38 GP
2021-228 G · 10.0 avg · −2.0 · 60 GP
Goals
A league-average finisher
What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts ›
The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.
Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season
Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season
G
2025-26
5.3
6
+0.7
52
94
2024-25
11.0
10
−1.0
66
149
2023-24
13.7
14
+0.3
74
190
2022-23
7.8
5
−2.8
38
93
2021-22
10.0
8
−2.0
60
136
G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).
Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.
Last 10 games
Last 10 games, newest first
Date
Opp
G
A
HIT
BLK
PIM
Apr 2
@ PHI
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
17:13
Mar 31
@ PIT
1
0
0
0
4
1
0
16:33
Mar 28
vs PHI
1
1
0
0
4
0
2
10:24
Mar 27
@ BUF
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
8:15
Mar 24
vs OTT
1
0
0
0
1
0
2
11:16
Mar 21
vs BOS
3
0
0
0
2
0
2
12:43
Mar 19
vs MTL
2
0
0
0
4
0
0
14:30
Mar 16
vs CGY
0
0
0
0
4
0
4
10:32
Mar 14
@ DAL
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
10:10
Mar 12
@ TBL
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
13:36
Markets · latest captured, not current
▸Apr 2 at Philadelphia Flyers · 7:00 PM ET
The prices posted for a game already played. Open to see them.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709[−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
Pre-game snapshotCaptured between Aug 2, 4:36 AM ET and Oct 1, 8:21 PM ET
This game’s markets: the posted line, the model’s projection and its chance of the over
Market
Line
Model projection
Model chance of over
GAnytime goal
0.5
0.1
6%
PPPPower-play points
0.5
0.0
Not shown
–Assists, hits, blocked shots, penalty minutes
No line posted.
No probability shown for power-play points: this market’s model is not calibrated well enough to state one.
