Pool: every forward who played in those seasons · Sample: 94 games
Top tenth of his pool in shots on goal, and top quarter in points. Top quarter in penalty minutes, which describes his role rather than his quality.
Production
Production: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Points
89
0.70
Goals
88
0.30
Assists
88
0.40
Shots on goal
93
2.44
Power-play points
86
0.17
Style and role
Style and role: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Hits
52
1.19
Blocked shots
7
0.30
Penalty minutes
87
0.70
Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate ›
Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.
How he got here
Each regular season
One regular season so far, 2025-26: 23 goals, 37 assists and 60 points in 82 games. The season-by-season chart starts with his second regular season.
What next
2026-27, projected
Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule
If he plays all 84 Anaheim Ducks games at his modelled per-game rate
Points
58.5
Goals
24.8
Assists
33.8
Shots on goal
204.9
Power-play points
14.2
Hits
100.2
Blocked shots
25.1
Penalty minutes
58.6
Based on 94 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.
How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on ›
Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Anaheim Ducks schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.
What carries into 2026-27 · a forecast, not a result
Below-average finishing; most of it projected to recover
2025-26−2.08−0.382026-27, projected−4−20+2+4below right wingsabove right wings
Goals above expected per 100 attempts, against the average for right wings
That was −6.5 goals over 310 attempts; the forecast is ≈ −1.2 at the same volume.
How the forecast is worked out — the carried share is measured over five seasons ›
18% of a season's rate against right wings carries into the next: −2.08 × 18% ≈ −0.38 per 100 attempts. The share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for his position.
Against right wings, not raw goals above expected. Goals minus was −7.3: 23 goals on 30.3 xG, or −2.36 per 100 attempts. Right wings as a group scored −0.28 per 100 against xG, so against right wings his rate was −2.08. Penalty-shot goals are left out: the model does not rate penalty shots.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figures assume the same number of attempts. A gap that persists means he reliably scores above what this model expects, which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Shooting
Where he shoots, and how he finishes
Shot density · 2025-26 · open play, regular season
FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell
4 more attempts came from outside the offensive zone and are not in the grid.
Open play · regular season · goals
Goals against a league-average finisher, by season
In 2025-26 he scored 23 where a league-average finisher would score 29.0 from his chances: 6.0 fewer.
2025-26 · on the rink23 G · 29.0 avg · −6.0 · 78 GP
Goals
A league-average finisher
What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts ›
The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.
Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season
Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season
G
2025-26
29.0
23
−6.0
78
310
G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).
Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.
Last 10 games
Last 10 games, newest first
Date
Opp
G
A
HIT
BLK
PIM
May 14
vs VGKPO, playoff game
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
20:03
May 12
@ VGKPO, playoff game
4
1
0
1
3
0
0
24:13
May 10
vs VGKPO, playoff game
2
1
1
2
1
0
2
15:53
May 8
vs VGKPO, playoff game
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
15:34
May 6
@ VGKPO, playoff game
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
11:03
May 4
@ VGKPO, playoff game
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
16:45
Apr 30
vs EDMPO, playoff game
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
15:08
Apr 28
@ EDMPO, playoff game
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
16:10
Apr 26
vs EDMPO, playoff game
5
0
0
0
0
2
0
22:38
Apr 24
vs EDMPO, playoff game
4
1
0
0
4
0
2
16:46
PO = playoff game.
Markets · latest captured, not current
▸Apr 9 vs San Jose Sharks · 10:00 PM ET
The prices posted for a game already played. Open to see them.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709[−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
Pre-game snapshotCaptured between Jul 30, 2:39 PM ET and Oct 1, 8:21 PM ET
This game’s markets: the posted line, the model’s projection and its chance of the over
Market
Line
Model projection
Model chance of over
GAnytime goal
0.5
0.3
27%
PPPPower-play points
0.5
0.1
Not shown
SOGShots on goal
2.5
2.2
Not shown
–Assists, hits, blocked shots, penalty minutes
No line posted.
No probability shown for power-play points and shots on goal: these markets’ models are not calibrated well enough to state one.
