Pool: every forward who played in those seasons · Sample: 342 games
Top quarter of his pool in shots on goal and points. Top quarter in blocked shots, which describes his role rather than his quality.
Production
Production: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Points
84
0.60
Goals
82
0.24
Assists
84
0.36
Shots on goal
86
2.04
Power-play points
74
0.10
Style and role
Style and role: percentile among 980 forwards, and the adjusted per-game rate it was computed from
Stat
0 · 50 · 100
Pctl
Adjusted per game
Hits
8
0.45
Blocked shots
81
0.72
Penalty minutes
9
0.18
Further right means more, not better: hits, blocked shots and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
What adjusted per game means — not his recorded rate ›
Adjusted per game is the rate each percentile was computed from: his recorded rate, weighted toward recent games and pulled toward the league average by sample size, so a short career does not read as an elite one. It sits closer to average than the rate recorded, so a skater with no points in his games can still show points per game above zero.
Points per game played, regular season. Filled dots are finished seasons; the smaller dot is the season to date; the dotted ring is the 2026-27 projection, the per-game rate the projections board uses. GP: games played.
What next
2026-27, projected
Full-season pace · his rate times the schedule
If he plays all 84 Vegas Golden Knights games at his modelled per-game rate
Points
50.4
Goals
20.5
Assists
29.9
Shots on goal
171.7
Power-play points
8.2
Hits
38.1
Blocked shots
60.7
Penalty minutes
15.4
Based on 342 games he has played, weighted toward recent ones. It assumes he plays all 84: injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.
How the pace is worked out — the figure the projections board ranks on ›
Each figure is his per-game rate, weighted toward recent games, times the 84 games on the Vegas Golden Knights schedule. It is the pace the projections board ranks the league on, so the figure a reader clicked there is the one at the top of this card.
Shooting
Where he shoots, and how he finishes
Shot density · 2025-26 · open play, regular season
FewerMore attempts, up to this skater’s busiest cell
3 more attempts came from outside the offensive zone and are not in the grid.
Open play · regular season · goals
Goals against a league-average finisher, by season
In 2025-26 he scored 4 where a league-average finisher would score 3.5 from his chances: 0.5 more.
2025-26 · on the rink4 G · 3.5 avg · +0.5 · 12 GP
2024-259 G · 13.8 avg · −4.8 · 53 GP
2023-2430 G · 22.6 avg · +7.4 · 69 GP
2022-2314 G · 21.4 avg · −7.4 · 79 GP
2021-2212 G · 18.3 avg · −6.3 · 65 GP
Goals
A league-average finisher
What the ring counts — what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts ›
The shot model prices the chance of a goal on every unblocked attempt he took in open play during the regular season; shootouts and penalty shots are left out. Those chances are scaled so that, across the league, they add up to the goals actually scored that season, so the ring is what a league-average finisher would have scored from his attempts and each season is measured against its own average. The gap is his goals minus that; the table below lists the exact figures.
Finishing against the league average · open play, regular season
Finishing by season: goals against a league-average finisher on the same attempts
Season
G
2025-26
3.5
4
+0.5
12
38
2024-25
13.8
9
−4.8
53
182
2023-24
22.6
30
+7.4
69
238
2022-23
21.4
14
−7.4
79
235
2021-22
18.3
12
−6.3
65
192
G vs avg: goals minus what a league-average finisher would score from the same attempts (Exp G, the model’s expected goals scaled to that season’s league-wide scoring).
Penalty-shot goals are not counted here: each one leaves these a goal and a point below his regular-season totals.
Last 10 games
Last 10 games, newest first
Date
Opp
G
A
HIT
BLK
PIM
Sep 29
vs CHI
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
17:26
Jun 11
@ CARPO, playoff game
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
8:43
Jun 9
vs CARPO, playoff game
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
16:53
Jun 6
vs CARPO, playoff game
2
0
1
0
2
1
0
24:09
Jun 4
@ CARPO, playoff game
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
19:07
Jun 2
@ CARPO, playoff game
2
1
0
0
0
1
0
18:05
May 26
vs COLPO, playoff game
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
17:34
May 24
vs COLPO, playoff game
2
1
1
0
0
1
0
17:22
May 22
@ COLPO, playoff game
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
17:42
May 20
@ COLPO, playoff game
1
0
0
0
1
4
0
21:11
PO = playoff game.
Markets · tonight
Oct 2 vs Anaheim Ducks · 10:00 PM ET
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709[−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
Lineup unconfirmed
Pre-game snapshotCaptured Oct 2, 7:52 PM ET· not updated during play
This game’s markets: the posted line and the model’s projection
Market
Line
Model projection
AAssists
0.5
0.2
SOGShots on goal
1.5
1.6
No probability shown for assists and shots on goal: these markets’ models are not calibrated well enough to state one.
