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Projections

Every headline stat per skater over the full 2026-27 regular season (Sep 29, 2026 – Apr 10, 2027), ranked by goals. Each total assumes the skater plays every one of his team’s games.

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PTS PointsG GoalsA AssistsSOG Shots on goalPPP Power-play pointsHIT HitsBLK Blocked shotsPIM Penalty minutes
View
Average weekFull-season pace
Position
AllF ForwardsC CentresLW Left wingsRW Right wingsD Defencemen
How the shading works — a stronger shade means more, not better, and a skater on a thin sample is left plain

Each figure sits on a tile shaded by its share of that stat’s leading projection in this view, in five steps from zero to the leader. Hits and penalty minutes shade the way points do. The leader is the league’s, among skaters whose rate rests on at least 41 real games, so a shade means the same on every page and under every filter. A skater with fewer is left unshaded, his sample marked beside his name.

322 defencemen · sorted by goals · assumes no games missed

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
HIT
BLK
PIM
201
Dennis CholowskiNYR · D
16.8
3.8
13.0
66.2
2.5
17.2
77.0
16.8
84
202
Owen PickeringPIT · D29 sample
11.0
3.8
7.2
53.0
0.9
45.2
59.7
27.1
84
203
Drew HellesonANA · D
20.1
3.8
16.3
67.6
0.2
106.1
100.3
39.9
84
204
Ryan GravesPIT · D
12.0
3.8
8.2
84.9
0.2
93.6
136.6
36.9
84
205
Nils LundkvistDAL · D
19.1
3.8
15.3
88.7
1.0
49.5
74.3
29.6
84
206
Braden SchneiderNYR · D
19.0
3.8
15.3
101.9
0.1
164.6
141.4
28.1
84
207
Tyler KlevenOTT · D
17.8
3.8
14.1
97.0
0.5
141.1
108.2
51.4
84
208
Kevin BahlCGY · D
19.2
3.7
15.5
72.2
1.0
128.4
111.9
57.4
84
209
Emil LillebergTBL · D
18.4
3.7
14.8
62.4
0.1
158.2
74.6
95.4
84
210
Olli MaattaMIN · D
24.8
3.7
21.1
69.6
0.1
32.7
124.1
13.4
84
211
Declan ChisholmNJD · D
19.2
3.7
15.5
82.0
2.9
39.1
85.0
17.1
84
212
Matt KierstedMIN · D38 sample
21.1
3.7
17.4
66.6
1.4
43.0
97.5
19.7
84
213
Zach BogosianMIN · D
13.7
3.6
10.1
75.5
0.1
107.1
80.4
47.2
84
214
Casey FitzgeraldFLA · D
17.8
3.6
14.1
79.9
2.1
136.9
58.2
53.0
84
215
Brett PesceNJD · D
20.4
3.6
16.7
118.5
0.7
31.5
156.9
27.5
84
216
Mike ReillyCAR · D
22.4
3.6
18.7
139.4
2.0
47.1
73.2
43.2
84
217
Erik CernakTBL · D
17.6
3.6
14.0
78.2
0.1
185.6
124.1
75.9
84
218
Derek ForbortVAN · D
15.7
3.6
12.1
61.6
0.3
127.0
129.0
61.0
84
219
Elias PetterssonVAN · D
11.6
3.6
8.0
58.5
0.2
153.0
97.7
49.0
84
220
Troy StecherTOR · D
14.2
3.6
10.6
79.5
0.1
53.7
95.4
31.5
84
221
Albert JohanssonDET · D
12.1
3.5
8.5
64.7
0.1
68.6
99.9
23.4
84
222
Henry ThrunWPG · D
16.7
3.5
13.2
77.8
2.0
57.4
97.1
33.7
84
223
Brenden DillonNJD · D
17.4
3.5
14.0
61.1
0.1
209.8
108.6
83.5
84
224
Brett KulakCOL · D
18.5
3.5
15.1
103.8
0.2
41.5
116.2
33.7
84
225
Zac JonesUTA · D
21.4
3.5
17.9
98.3
1.6
54.0
78.6
36.6
84
226
Dylan DeMeloWPG · D
22.0
3.5
18.5
82.1
0.2
134.9
115.6
41.7
84
227
Marcus PetterssonNYR · D
23.6
3.4
20.2
79.5
0.1
93.3
148.8
54.4
84
228
Matt RoyWSH · D
23.8
3.4
20.4
109.8
0.3
138.1
159.7
22.4
84
229
Nick LeddySJS · D
21.4
3.4
18.0
62.2
0.8
34.3
99.2
15.6
84
230
Alexander PetrovicFLA · D
14.3
3.4
10.9
83.6
0.2
145.8
108.2
63.0
84
231
Erik GudbransonCBJ · D
15.4
3.4
12.0
89.3
0.2
109.9
149.3
53.6
84
232
Zach WhitecloudCGY · D
17.7
3.4
14.3
75.9
0.1
140.6
138.1
38.5
84
233
Dmitry KulikovFLA · D
16.0
3.4
12.7
74.9
0.1
149.8
89.6
51.6
84
234
Ethan Del MastroCHI · D
12.3
3.4
9.0
76.9
0.5
105.2
85.6
55.1
84
235
Brendan SmithCBJ · D
15.6
3.3
12.2
75.3
0.3
117.4
86.0
78.1
84
236
Elias SalomonssonWPG · D32 sample
14.6
3.3
11.3
99.3
3.0
129.6
70.8
32.0
84
237
Adam PelechNYI · D
21.2
3.3
17.9
126.4
0.4
84.0
130.0
47.6
84
238
Cale FleurySEA · D
11.1
3.3
7.8
85.5
0.5
178.5
127.7
20.1
84
239
Scott PerunovichLAK · D
25.0
3.3
21.7
53.8
5.0
43.6
83.4
23.0
84
240
Justin HollWSH · D
13.9
3.2
10.7
53.9
0.2
80.9
94.8
34.3
84
241
Tyler MyersDAL · D
19.1
3.2
15.9
104.1
0.4
110.2
146.9
70.6
84
242
Isaiah GeorgeNYI · D37 sample
16.5
3.1
13.3
67.9
0.7
39.1
80.8
14.8
84
243
Declan CarlilePIT · D
10.8
3.1
7.7
72.1
0.3
108.4
72.8
82.7
84
244
Caleb JonesPIT · D
16.4
3.1
13.3
81.1
2.0
124.8
119.4
31.1
84
245
Connor CliftonBOS · D
15.2
3.1
12.1
73.6
0.1
256.8
130.3
71.6
84
246
Ryan LindgrenSEA · D
16.7
3.1
13.6
65.9
0.1
79.6
132.7
56.4
84
247
Egor ZamulaCBJ · D
16.9
3.0
13.8
55.3
2.4
31.6
107.9
16.2
84
248
Haydn FleuryWPG · D
12.3
3.0
9.3
70.6
0.2
116.1
120.5
30.6
84
249
Dylan SambergWPG · D
20.1
3.0
17.1
107.8
0.6
75.8
142.9
27.5
84
250
Brayden PachalCGY · D
14.4
3.0
11.4
69.5
0.2
186.9
92.0
95.7
84

No consistency figure for goals: it has not passed the check this site requires, which is not a finding that goals is inconsistent.

Why there is no figure — a figure must repeat across a skater’s own games before it is shown

Before it shows a consistency figure, the site checks that the figure from a skater’s odd-numbered games agrees with the one from his even-numbered games, across skaters, more than chance would. That check withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and from here the two cannot be told apart. Sort by another stat to see the tag where it holds. Measured 2026-10-02.

How the projections are built — a rate over every season since 2021-22, recent games weighted more, times the club’s schedule

A skater’s rate is his per-game output over every season since 2021-22, each season weighted half as much as the one after it, and pulled a little toward the league rate so a handful of games cannot top the board. The weighting was chosen by testing which one best predicted the rest of a season from the games before it. A skater needs ten games to appear here.

Each total is that rate times his club’s scheduled games. A full-season pace counts every scheduled game, played or not.

Availability is not projected: Team games is the club’s schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

Scoring per dollar of cap hit has a board of its own: Cap efficiency