Fri, Oct 2, 2026
Tonight’s sheet
3 of 5 games have posted player lines
As captured before puck drop, each game’s time beside it; not updated during play.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
5 games · 86 players · 19 posted A lines · sorted by projection
No probability shown: this market’s model is not calibrated well enough to state one.
How to read the sheet — what Line and Proj mean, and what is projected before puck drop
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean. Each bar is P(A = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation. No probability shown: this market’s model is not calibrated well enough to state one.
Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).
This date has projections for Assists and Shots on goal only; the other markets are dimmed.
Before puck drop only shots on goal and assists are projected, and only for a club that has already played this season: the model reads the days of rest since a club’s last game, which a season opener does not have. So an opener shows no projections for that club, and a game can list one club’s players and not the other’s.
New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings
6:30 PM ETCaptured Oct 2, 6:23 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Oct 2, 8:51 AM ET, before puck drop
Detroit Red Wings: projections unavailable for its season opener.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
18 more players with no posted line
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes
7:00 PM ETCaptured Oct 2, 6:52 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Oct 2, 8:51 AM ET, before puck drop
Washington Capitals: projections unavailable for its season opener.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
16 more players with no posted line
Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets
8:00 PM ETCaptured Oct 2, 6:52 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Oct 2, 8:51 AM ET, before puck drop
Winnipeg Jets: projections unavailable for its season opener.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
16 more players with no posted line
St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars
9:00 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Oct 2, 8:51 AM ET, before puck drop
No props in this market for this game.
Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights
10:00 PM ETCaptured Oct 2, 6:52 PM ETGame pageWin chance: Set Oct 2, 8:51 AM ET, before puck drop
Anaheim Ducks: projections unavailable for its season opener.
No lines posted for this game yet.
17 more players with no posted line
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for each skater on the slate the model can score — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.