Projections
Every headline stat per skater over the full 2026-27 regular season (Sep 29, 2026 – Apr 10, 2027), ranked by goals. Each total assumes the skater plays every one of his team’s games.
How the shading works — a stronger shade means more, not better, and a skater on a thin sample is left plain
Each figure sits on a tile shaded by its share of that stat’s leading projection in this view, in five steps from zero to the leader. Hits and penalty minutes shade the way points do. The leader is the league’s, among skaters whose rate rests on at least 41 real games, so a shade means the same on every page and under every filter. A skater with fewer is left unshaded, his sample marked beside his name.
322 defencemen · sorted by goals · assumes no games missed
No consistency figure for goals: it has not passed the check this site requires, which is not a finding that goals is inconsistent.
Why there is no figure — a figure must repeat across a skater’s own games before it is shown
Before it shows a consistency figure, the site checks that the figure from a skater’s odd-numbered games agrees with the one from his even-numbered games, across skaters, more than chance would. That check withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and from here the two cannot be told apart. Sort by another stat to see the tag where it holds. Measured 2026-10-02.
How the projections are built — a rate over every season since 2021-22, recent games weighted more, times the club’s schedule
A skater’s rate is his per-game output over every season since 2021-22, each season weighted half as much as the one after it, and pulled a little toward the league rate so a handful of games cannot top the board. The weighting was chosen by testing which one best predicted the rest of a season from the games before it. A skater needs ten games to appear here.
Each total is that rate times his club’s scheduled games. A full-season pace counts every scheduled game, played or not.
Availability is not projected: Team games is the club’s schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.
How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study
Scoring per dollar of cap hit has a board of its own: Cap efficiency