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Sat, Dec 16, 2023

Scores

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

2026-27 · updated Fri, Oct 2 · results through Thu, Oct 1

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 81% in the East; Colorado Avalanche at 82% in the West.

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffs
Carolina Hurricanes110581%
Ottawa Senators010479%
Tampa Bay Lightning09761%
Philadelphia Flyers19760%
New Jersey Devils29758%
Columbus Blue Jackets29553%
Montréal Canadiens29552%
Buffalo Sabres09451%
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffs
Pittsburgh Penguins29449%
Florida Panthers39449%
Detroit Red Wings09348%
Washington Capitals09244%
Boston Bruins29141%
New York Islanders08831%
New York Rangers28626%
Toronto Maple Leafs28217%

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffs
Colorado Avalanche210482%
Vegas Golden Knights210380%
Edmonton Oilers39970%
Minnesota Wild29764%
Dallas Stars09660%
Anaheim Ducks09559%
Utah Mammoth29556%
Los Angeles Kings09456%
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffs
St. Louis Blues09351%
Winnipeg Jets09145%
San Jose Sharks28940%
Nashville Predators08835%
Seattle Kraken28734%
Calgary Flames08424%
Chicago Blackhawks08322%
Vancouver Canucks28322%

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 2, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Evan Bouchard leads with 8 points, ahead of Connor McDavid at 7.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Evan BouchardEDM · D8 points2 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Connor McDavidEDM · C7 points2 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Paul CotterVAN · L4 points2 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R4 points2 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Marco RossiVAN · C4 points2 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Rumour

    Red Wings' Dylan Larkin booed by fans after trade request (external site)

    USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

  2. Lineup

    Predators Reassign Ryan Ufko to Milwaukee (external site)

    The Hockey News - Nashville Predators via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Ryan Ufko, Nashville Predators

  3. Lineup

    (10-2-26) Blues-Stars Gameday Lineup (external site)

    The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured