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Fri, Jan 22, 2027

Scores

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Sat, Oct 3 · results through Fri, Oct 2

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Ottawa Senators at 79% in the East; Colorado Avalanche at 82% in the West.

Biggest moves since Fri, Oct 2: Detroit Red Wings −4, Anaheim Ducks +3, Carolina Hurricanes −3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Ottawa Senators010479%0
Carolina Hurricanes110478%−3
Tampa Bay Lightning09761%0
Philadelphia Flyers19760%0
New Jersey Devils29758%0
Columbus Blue Jackets29553%0
Montréal Canadiens29552%0
Buffalo Sabres09451%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Florida Panthers39449%0
Pittsburgh Penguins29449%0
Washington Capitals29347%+3
Detroit Red Wings09244%−4
Boston Bruins49243%+2
New York Islanders08830%−1
New York Rangers48729%+3
Toronto Maple Leafs28217%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Colorado Avalanche210482%0
Vegas Golden Knights210277%−3
Edmonton Oilers39970%0
Minnesota Wild29764%0
Anaheim Ducks29662%+3
Dallas Stars09557%−3
Utah Mammoth29557%+1
Los Angeles Kings09456%0
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues29454%+3
Winnipeg Jets19144%−1
San Jose Sharks28940%0
Nashville Predators08836%+1
Seattle Kraken28734%0
Calgary Flames08424%0
Chicago Blackhawks08322%0
Vancouver Canucks28322%0

2026-27 full-season pace

League leaders

Jacob Melanson leads with 407.5 projected hits, ahead of Kiefer Sherwood at 406.6.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. The pace stretches a short record across a full season, so it can move a long way as games are added.

  1. 1Jacob MelansonSEA · R407.5 projected hits38-game sample (limited sample)
  2. 2Kiefer SherwoodSJS · L406.6 projected hits268-game sample
  3. 3Yakov TreninMIN · C341.6 projected hits421-game sample
  4. 4Marc GatcombVGK · C330.2 projected hits89-game sample
  5. 5Jeremy LauzonVGK · D323.0 projected hits330-game sample
How the leaders are counted — a rate carried across every game of the club’s 2026-27 regular season, not a forecast of games he will play

A projection is the player’s recent rate per game multiplied by his club’s full schedule, assuming he plays every game. The sample is the games the rate rests on, and a dotted bar marks a projection where a solid one marks a count.

Full projections board

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Seamus Casey’s Injury Hurts The Devils In Multiple Ways (external site)

    The Hockey News - New Jersey Devils via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Seamus Casey, New Jersey Devils

  2. Rumour

    Red Wings fans boo star center Dylan Larkin after trade request drama (external site)

    NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

    Also reported by: USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site)

  3. Injury

    More Bad News: Flyers Prospect Maksim Sokolovskii Out With an Injury (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Philadelphia Flyers

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured