ANA Anaheim Ducks

vsVGKVegas Golden Knights

Last gameMay 14 · 9:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates ANA higher than the standings do

In points

#18/32

what happened

By our rating

#17/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 43 wins, 33 regulation losses, 6 overtime losses
Points: 92
Points rank: 18/32
Goal diff: −15

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1502
League rank: 17/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LMay 14vsVGK1–5

OTLMay 12@VGK2–3OT

WMay 10vsVGK4–3

LMay 8vsVGK2–6

WMay 6@VGK3–1

LMay 4@VGK1–3

WApr 30vsEDM5–2

LApr 28@EDM1–4

WApr 26vsEDM4–3OT

WApr 24vsEDM7–4

Current roster · per-game rates

26 skaters · 4 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Troy Terry	19	0.84	0.30	0.54	2.49	371
Leo Carlsson	91	0.81	0.34	0.46	2.38	213
Cutter Gauthier	61	0.80	0.43	0.37	3.25	171
Mikael Granlund	64	0.74	0.28	0.46	1.91	403
Beckett Sennecke	45	0.70	0.30	0.40	2.46	94
Chris Kreider	20	0.66	0.34	0.32	2.15	440
Alex Killorn	17	0.49	0.23	0.26	1.84	432
Ryan Poehling	25	0.44	0.17	0.28	1.26	341
Frank Vatrano	77	0.43	0.23	0.20	2.41	385
Sean Farrell	57	0.17	0.17	0.00	1.33	6
A.J. Greer	18	0.31	0.16	0.16	1.18	304
Nikita Nesterenko	13	0.30	0.08	0.22	1.12	61
Sam Colangelo	12	0.28	0.24	0.04	1.14	44
Jeff Malott	39	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.88	81
Tim Washe	42	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.77	53
James Hamblin	38	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.67	41
Nathan Gaucher	41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	3

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Jackson LaCombe	2	0.63	0.12	0.50	1.73	242
Tristan Luneau	67	0.30	0.22	0.09	1.35	14
Pavel Mintyukov	98	0.29	0.09	0.20	1.12	216
Nick Jensen	4	0.27	0.05	0.22	0.85	376
Drew Helleson	14	0.23	0.04	0.19	0.79	127
Corey Schueneman	26	0.11	0.03	0.09	1.11	35
Ian Moore	3	0.17	0.06	0.11	1.03	80
Travis Mitchell	34	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.44	9
Tyson Hinds	55	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.67	15

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Laurent Brossoit	31	.9084	2.47	23.6	26.0	56:34	68
Ville Husso	33	.8906	2.94	24.0	26.9	55:04	157
Lukas Dostal	1	.8923	3.00	24.9	27.9	56:37	189
Vyacheslav Buteyets	32	.7692	3.00	10.0	13.0	20:00	1

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Beckett SenneckeR82 gp$0.95M2 yrsRFA6062.9

Drew HellesonD60 gp$1.10M1 yrRFA1513.6

Nikita NesterenkoC29 gp$0.84M1 yrUFA910.7

Ian MooreD67 gp$1.15M2 yrsRFA1210.4

Ryan PoehlingC75 gp$3.75M4 yrsUFA369.6

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 14 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.