Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

CHI Chicago Blackhawks

vsSJSSan Jose Sharks

Last gameApr 15 · 8:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates CHI higher than the standings do

In points

#31/32

what happened

By our rating

#30/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 29 wins, 39 regulation losses, 14 overtime losses
Points: 72
Points rank: 31/32
Goal diff: −62

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1448
League rank: 30/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

WApr 15vsSJS5–2

LApr 13vsBUF1–5

LApr 11vsSTL3–5

LApr 9vsCAR2–7

LApr 6@SJS2–3

WApr 4@SEA4–2

LApr 2@EDM1–3

OTLMar 31vsWPG3–4OT

LMar 29@NJD3–5

LMar 27@NYR1–6

Current roster · per-game rates

27 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Connor Bedard	98	0.97	0.37	0.60	2.95	219
Patrick Kane	88	0.86	0.28	0.58	2.63	347
Anton Frondell	16	0.75	0.25	0.50	3.00	12
Tyler Bertuzzi	59	0.66	0.34	0.32	1.97	373
Frank Nazar	91	0.58	0.23	0.35	1.97	122
Teuvo Teravainen	86	0.58	0.21	0.37	1.43	409
Ryan Donato	8	0.47	0.23	0.24	1.78	399
Oliver Moore	11	0.38	0.09	0.29	1.12	60
Nick Lardis	76	0.37	0.24	0.12	1.39	41
Ryan Greene	20	0.35	0.15	0.21	1.34	83
Andrew Mangiapane	26	0.35	0.17	0.19	1.25	404
Sacha Boisvert	90	0.29	0.14	0.14	0.86	7
Jordan Greenway	12	0.23	0.09	0.15	1.05	284
Cole Smith	22	0.21	0.10	0.11	1.03	318
Dominic Toninato	25	0.16	0.03	0.12	0.76	112
Landon Slaggert	84	0.15	0.06	0.09	0.92	102

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Ryan Ellis	—	1.25	0.25	1.00	1.50	4
Bowen Byram	24	0.49	0.14	0.35	1.36	349
Artyom Levshunov	55	0.35	0.03	0.32	1.23	86
Sam Rinzel	6	0.28	0.07	0.21	1.61	63
Alex Vlasic	72	0.28	0.03	0.25	1.10	260
Derrick Pouliot	51	0.17	0.00	0.17	0.77	24
Ian Cole	28	0.24	0.03	0.21	0.81	434
Wyatt Kaiser	44	0.20	0.07	0.13	1.00	175
Kevin Korchinski	14	0.17	0.04	0.13	0.93	105
Connor Mackey	12	0.11	0.05	0.07	0.84	39
Ethan Del Mastro	38	0.13	0.03	0.10	0.87	45

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Spencer Knight	30	.9022	2.77	25.5	28.3	59:08	146
Drew Commesso	33	.9082	2.25	22.3	24.5	54:21	5
Arvid Soderblom	40	.8864	3.40	26.5	29.9	56:44	112

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Ryan GreeneC81 gp$0.95M1 yrRFA2930.5

Artyom LevshunovD68 gp$0.97M1 yrRFA2424.6

Oliver MooreC51 gp$0.94M1 yrRFA1920.2

Nick LardisL41 gp$0.93M2 yrsRFA1516.2

Sam RinzelD54 gp$0.94M1 yrRFA1414.9

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 15 · modeled projections

0 PPP · sorted by projection

No PPP lines were captured for this game.