Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

DAL Dallas Stars

@MINMinnesota Wild

Last gameApr 30 · 7:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

DAL's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#3/32

what happened

By our rating

#10/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-7

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 50 wins, 20 regulation losses, 12 overtime losses
Points: 112
Points rank: 3/32
Goal diff: +53

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1518
League rank: 10/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 30@MIN2–5

LApr 28vsMIN2–4

OTLApr 25@MIN2–3OT

WApr 22@MIN4–3OT

WApr 20vsMIN4–2

LApr 18vsMIN1–6

WApr 15@BUF4–3SO

WApr 13@TOR6–5

WApr 11vsNYR2–0

WApr 9vsMIN5–4

Current roster · per-game rates

23 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Mikko Rantanen	96	1.19	0.41	0.78	2.63	445
Jason Robertson	21	1.08	0.49	0.59	3.22	464
Wyatt Johnston	53	0.90	0.46	0.44	2.50	390
Roope Hintz	24	0.85	0.34	0.50	2.28	419
Matt Duchene	95	0.85	0.30	0.54	1.79	415
Tyler Seguin	91	0.69	0.30	0.38	1.95	335
Jamie Benn	14	0.60	0.22	0.38	1.59	453
Sam Steel	18	0.37	0.12	0.25	1.10	410
Cameron Hughes	34	0.33	0.33	0.00	0.67	3
Justin Hryckowian	49	0.35	0.16	0.20	1.00	92
Radek Faksa	12	0.26	0.06	0.19	0.83	407
Colin Blackwell	15	0.22	0.08	0.14	1.03	312
Arttu Hyry	25	0.21	0.11	0.09	1.11	29
Joel Kiviranta	22	0.20	0.10	0.10	1.01	354
Oskar Bäck	10	0.18	0.06	0.13	0.57	162

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Miro Heiskanen	4	0.75	0.13	0.62	2.13	406
Thomas Harley	55	0.54	0.13	0.41	1.81	329
Esa Lindell	23	0.33	0.07	0.26	1.18	471
Tyler Myers	57	0.22	0.04	0.19	1.23	398
Nils Lundkvist	5	0.22	0.04	0.18	1.05	251
Kyle Capobianco	20	0.15	0.06	0.09	0.59	94
Lian Bichsel	6	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.67	112
Kyle Burroughs	—	0.10	0.02	0.08	0.72	196

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Brandon Halverson	—	.8030	2.60	10.6	13.2	34:21	3
Casey DeSmith	1	.9071	2.46	24.0	26.5	56:55	155
Jake Oettinger	29	.9046	2.57	24.3	26.9	59:06	345

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Jamie BennL60 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA3642.4

Justin HryckowianC81 gp$0.95M2 yrsUFA3031.6

Colin BlackwellC70 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA1517.6

Sam SteelC73 gp$2.10M1 yrUFA3315.7

Oskar BäckC72 gp$0.82M1 yrUFA1214.5

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 30 · modeled projections

0 BLK · sorted by projection

No BLK lines were captured for this game.