Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

MTL Montréal Canadiens

@CARCarolina Hurricanes

Last gameMay 29 · 8:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

MTL's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#6/32

what happened

By our rating

#18/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-12

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 48 wins, 24 regulation losses, 10 overtime losses
Points: 106
Points rank: 6/32
Goal diff: +27

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1501
League rank: 18/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LMay 29@CAR1–6

LMay 27vsCAR0–4

OTLMay 25vsCAR2–3OT

OTLMay 23@CAR2–3OT

WMay 21@CAR6–2

WMay 18@BUF3–2OT

LMay 16vsBUF3–8

WMay 14@BUF6–3

LMay 12vsBUF2–3

WMay 10vsBUF6–2

Current roster · per-game rates

31 skaters · 4 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Nick Suzuki	14	1.07	0.34	0.73	2.19	434
Cole Caufield	13	0.93	0.51	0.42	3.12	382
Juraj Slafkovský	20	0.74	0.31	0.44	2.05	306
Ivan Demidov	93	0.70	0.22	0.48	1.58	108
Alex Newhook	15	0.47	0.26	0.22	1.49	375
Phillip Danault	24	0.43	0.12	0.31	1.44	437
Zachary Bolduc	76	0.40	0.18	0.22	1.34	201
Alexandre Texier	85	0.40	0.17	0.23	1.38	218
Alex Belzile	60	0.38	0.16	0.22	1.27	42
Jake Evans	71	0.39	0.14	0.25	1.07	382
Kirby Dach	77	0.39	0.20	0.19	1.34	243
Oliver Kapanen	91	0.39	0.22	0.17	1.44	110
Josh Anderson	17	0.33	0.20	0.13	1.47	393
Hunter McKown	41	0.17	0.00	0.17	1.08	12
Florian Xhekaj	63	0.20	0.00	0.20	0.80	5
Lucas Condotta	82	0.14	0.14	0.00	0.83	11
Brett Berard	65	0.16	0.10	0.07	1.30	48
Samuel Poulin	8	0.09	0.00	0.09	0.49	15
Jared Davidson	49	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.90	10
Owen Beck	62	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.76	28

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Lane Hutson	48	0.90	0.12	0.77	1.40	190
Noah Dobson	53	0.57	0.13	0.44	2.19	412
Reilly Walsh	56	1.00	0.00	1.00	2.00	1
David Reinbacher	64	0.50	0.00	0.50	1.50	2
Mike Matheson	8	0.46	0.10	0.37	1.70	393
Maksymilian Szuber	55	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	1
Kaiden Guhle	21	0.32	0.06	0.26	1.08	232
Alexandre Carrier	45	0.31	0.07	0.24	0.86	379
Jayden Struble	47	0.18	0.03	0.15	0.59	185
Arber Xhekaj	72	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.82	246
Adam Engstrom	42	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.73	15

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Kaapo Kahkonen	34	.8936	3.23	27.1	30.3	53:42	111
Samuel Montembeault	35	.8927	2.98	24.7	27.6	57:00	209
Jakub Dobes	75	.9038	2.69	25.3	28.0	58:51	81
Jacob Fowler	32	.9067	2.33	22.7	25.0	56:37	18

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Ivan DemidovR82 gp$0.94M9 yrsUFA6265.9

Oliver KapanenC82 gp$0.94M1 yrRFA3739.3

Nick SuzukiC82 gp$7.88M4 yrsUFA10112.8

Cole CaufieldR81 gp$7.85M5 yrsUFA8811.2

Juraj SlafkovskýL82 gp$7.60M7 yrsUFA739.6

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 29 · modeled projections

0 BLK · sorted by projection

No BLK lines were captured for this game.