Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

NYR New York Rangers

@TBLTampa Bay Lightning

Last gameApr 15 · 7:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates NYR higher than the standings do

In points

#30/32

what happened

By our rating

#28/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 34 wins, 39 regulation losses, 9 overtime losses
Points: 77
Points rank: 30/32
Goal diff: −12

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1458
League rank: 28/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

WApr 15@TBL4–2

LApr 13@FLA2–3

LApr 11@DAL0–2

LApr 8vsBUF3–5

WApr 5vsWSH8–1

WApr 4vsDET4–1

LApr 2vsMTL2–3

WMar 31vsNJD4–1

WMar 29vsFLA3–1

WMar 27vsCHI6–1

Current roster · per-game rates

30 skaters · 4 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
J.T. Miller	10	0.93	0.31	0.63	2.17	395
Mika Zibanejad	93	0.91	0.36	0.55	2.58	450
Pavel Dorofeyev	16	0.70	0.44	0.26	2.80	262
Alexis Lafrenière	13	0.64	0.27	0.36	2.02	449
Gabe Perreault	94	0.52	0.23	0.29	1.47	54
Oliver Bjorkstrand	28	0.50	0.20	0.30	1.87	420
Will Cuylle	50	0.45	0.23	0.22	1.81	265
Adam Sykora	38	0.36	0.27	0.09	1.36	11
Noah Laba	42	0.32	0.12	0.20	0.99	74
Taylor Raddysh	14	0.29	0.12	0.18	1.08	380
Tye Kartye	24	0.29	0.12	0.17	0.97	214
Juuso Parssinen	71	0.28	0.13	0.15	0.84	158
Glenn Gawdin	—	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75	6
Anton Blidh	25	0.20	0.02	0.18	0.89	51
Jaroslav Chmelar	49	0.21	0.14	0.07	0.82	28
Joe Veleno	90	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.92	371
Justin Dowling	37	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.67	83
Matt Rempe	73	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.63	96

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Adam Fox	23	0.91	0.16	0.75	1.77	404
Sean Durzi	5	0.45	0.09	0.36	1.46	321
Vladislav Gavrikov	44	0.38	0.12	0.27	1.40	410
Marcus Pettersson	26	0.29	0.04	0.25	0.94	389
Matthew Robertson	29	0.25	0.08	0.16	1.10	74
Drew Fortescue	45	0.22	0.00	0.22	0.33	9
Scott Morrow	60	0.23	0.01	0.22	1.00	50
Braden Schneider	4	0.23	0.04	0.18	1.18	412
Urho Vaakanainen	18	0.22	0.02	0.21	0.81	205
Marc Del Gaizo	—	0.21	0.04	0.17	1.58	55
Dennis Cholowski	—	0.19	0.04	0.15	0.75	71
Vincent Iorio	6	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.58	37

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Joonas Korpisalo	70	.8947	2.86	24.3	27.2	55:03	181
Spencer Martin	41	.8716	3.24	22.0	25.2	51:31	69
Igor Shesterkin	31	.9119	2.54	26.2	28.8	58:58	321
Dylan Garand	33	.9479	1.67	30.3	32.0	61:40	3

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Gabe PerreaultR49 gp$0.94M1 yrRFA2728.7

Noah LabaC74 gp$0.94M1 yrRFA2425.4

Matthew RobertsonD72 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA1821.2

Tye KartyeL64 gp$1.25M1 yrRFA2217.6

Taylor RaddyshR68 gp$1.50M1 yrUFA1912.7

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 15 · modeled projections

0 PIM · sorted by projection

No PIM lines were captured for this game.